MARKET MONTH: NOVEMBER 2013

The Markets

Sprint to the finish: As economic data delayed by the federal government shutdown began to trickle in and the Fed continued to hold off on tapering, investors continued to drive equities to record levels. The Dow industrials hit 12 new all-time closing highs during the month, which helped push the index above 16,000. The S&P 500 set its 38th new record of the year and made history by rising above 1,800 for the first time ever. While the Nasdaq is still well below its all-time record of 5048.62, set in March 2000, it did manage to surpass 4,000; the last time that happened, Al Gore and George Bush were a month away from their first presidential debate. And if the Nasdaq were to remain at Friday’s level through the rest of the year, it would record the seventh best year in its history; if the small-cap Russell 2000 did the same, it would have had its fourth best year ever.*

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October 2013 Market Commentary

It is understandable why clients may be feeling uneasy with the prospects of their portfolio given the level of unproductive rhetoric coming out of Washington in recent days.  Today, I have watched both the President and the House leaders hold press conferences which seem to do little to move toward any real  resolution of this impasse. Even so, I am inclined to ride this one out, as I believe there will be a resolution, likely followed by a favorable market reaction.  Sometime the hardest thing for investors to do is … nothing.  Although we are not opposed to making tactical moves, the best course of action right now seems likely to be to remain invested while waiting for cooler heads to prevail and markets to rebound.  Better still, for those with cash, market declines may even represent a buying opportunity.

Bottom line, I am inclined to believe that although there may continue to be anxiety in the markets until these problems are resolved, at present it seems entirely likely that a resolution to the needed increase to the debt ceiling will be achieved.    Never before has there not been an increase in the debt ceiling.    I recognize and promote importance of getting a better handle on our nation’s overspending for the long-term health of our country, but it seems extremely unlikely that another increase will not occur soon.  Although this may happen at the 11th hour … or even later, what seems most likely is that there will be some manner of short-term resolution to push the debt ceiling higher while both sides negotiate further in order to come to some more long-term negotiated resolution prior to the year’s end.

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Quarterly Market Review Video – April through June 2013

MARKET REVIEW

Would you like a better understanding of what’s been happening in the markets lately? Whether it’s the stock markets, bonds, the economy, or the Federal Reserve, there have been many moving parts to watch for when considering your portfolio this past quarter and in the future.

Join the investment advisors of AMR for a Client Conference Call at 6:30 PM on July  24, 2013.  Details for access will be posted soon.  Questions can be forwarded to: Info@AMRfinancial.com.

Until then, enjoy this brief video review of the past quarter’s market review:  Quarterly Market Review Video

 

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George Fisher’s June Market Commentary

Now Is The Time To Review Your Bond and Utility Holdings

May 31, 2013

Alliance Bernstein, in an article published on their website, outlines the case for adding global bond exposure as a means of improving risk-adjusted returns for core bond portfolios.  Below are graphs from the article and a link to the article is provided below.

Adding GlobalGlobal can also be core

Why is this important?

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First Trust commentary – “Fed Will Make Excuses about Inflation”

“Fed Will Make Excuses about Inflation”

Reprinted with the permission of First Trust

Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist, First Trust Bob Stein, CFA – Senior Economist, First Trust

Date: 2/25/2013

Inflation is tame. For now. the CPI (consumer price inflation) was flat in January and is up only 1.6% from a year ago. The PPI (producer prices) rose a small 0.2% in January and is up just 1.4% from a year ago.

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